In Africa, we contribute only about 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, but we bear a disproportionate burden from climate change. The continent’s agriculture sector, which employs over 60% of the population and is largely dependent on rain, is vulnerable to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events.
These factors have led to significant crop losses, threatening food security, livelihoods, and economic stability. This article provides a visual and data-driven breakdown of these impacts, drawing on recent reports, studies, and projections. We’ll explore historical trends, current examples, future projections, anregional variations, and how agritech can come into the picture.
Historical Impacts
Data from the IPCC AR6 report and peer-reviewed studies such as PLOS One show how much impact has already been felt across the continent:
- Since 1961, growth in agricultural productivity across Africa has dropped by about 34%, the steepest decline of any region worldwide.
- Between 1974 and 2008, climate change cut maize yields by nearly 6% and wheat by over 2% in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Across maize, wheat, sorghum, and cassava, the calorie output has fallen by roughly 1.4% each year.
- In Ghana, climate impacts have reduced edible calories from major crops by 8%, with cassava taking the biggest hit.
- In Zimbabwe, key crops like maize have seen around 10% losses, driven by droughts and heatwaves linked to climate stress.
The Science of Crop Losses
Different crops respond differently to changes in temperature, rainfall, and COâ‚‚ levels. In Africa, staples like maize, sorghum, rice, and cassava form the dietary backbone. Unfortunately, these are among the crops most sensitive to climate disruptions.
- Temperature sensitivity: In sub-Saharan Africa, a 1°C increase reduces maize yields by about 0.8% (roughly 10kg/ha).
- Rainfall dependency: A 1% increase in precipitation can raise output by 0.62%, but reductions in rainy-season length often wipe out these gains.
- Extreme weather: Droughts lead to 30–90% yield losses in maize, sorghum, and beans, depending on severity and location.
- Pests and diseases: Climate change fuels locust swarms, fall armyworm infestations, and fungal outbreaks. Already, pests cause 10–35% crop losses annually, and global warming could push this figure 50% higher.
Future Projections
According to projections from the Centre for Global Development, as highlighted in reports from The Conversation, if current trends continue, crop production across Africa could decline by 2.9% by 2030 and 18% by 2050.
A World Bank analysis on the impact of climate change on African agriculture estimates that by 2050, even with perfect adaptation, losses could reach 19.9% in Burkina Faso. Meanwhile, a study on future food security in Africa, published in AGU Journals, finds that under a 3°C warmer world, the continent’s total food production might only sustain 1.35 billion people—far short of projected population needs.
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The IPCC’s AR6 report provides detailed visuals in Figures 9.22 and 9.23. Figure 9.22 draws on boxplots from 35 studies across 1,040 locations to illustrate projected yield changes for staples like maize, rice, and wheat at warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C (relative to 2005). For maize in West Africa specifically:
- Without adaptation: -9% at 1.5°C, -41% at 4°C.
- With adaptation: Losses reduced to -10% at 2°C and -23% at 4°C.
Regional Hotspots of Decline
Climate change does not affect all of Africa equally, as outlined in the IPCC’s AR6 Working Group II report on impacts and adaptation.
West Africa: By 2050, farmers growing staples like maize and rice are expected to face serious setbacks as rainfall becomes less predictable and heatwaves more frequent. Under a 2°C warming scenario, yields could shrink by 5–20% if no adaptation measures are taken. At higher global warming levels, the damage becomes even sharper, with potential yield losses climbing to as much as 30–40%. This means millions of tons of food disappearing from Africa’s supply each year.
Southern Africa: Known for its dependence on maize, Southern Africa faces some of the harshest losses, with a projection of 10–30% maize yield declines by 2050 under 2°C warming without adaptation, escalating to 30–60% under 3–4°C scenarios, particularly in drought years marked by longer dry spells and reduced water availability.
Countries like Zimbabwe and Malawi have already declared national disasters after crop collapses. Zimbabwe’s 2024 declaration amid an El Niño-driven drought led to 40% of crops rated poor and 60% written off. Malawi similarly declared a state of disaster in March 2024 across 23 districts due to similar drought impacts.
East Africa: While higher rainfall in some areas may temporarily boost crops, temperature spikes and failed rainy seasons create high variability, with projected maize declines of 5–25% by 2050 under 2°C warming without adaptation. Ethiopia and Kenya face rising risks of maize and teff shortages, with studies estimating 21.8% maize and 25.4% teff yield decreases by 2050 in Ethiopia due to these climate shifts.
North Africa: Wheat production is at risk due to rising temperatures and shrinking water availability from the Nile and aquifers, which projects a 15–30% decline in wheat yields by 2050 under 2°C warming without adaptation. Additional analyses indicate that temperature rises of 1–4°C could reduce wheat yields by around 17.6% in Egypt, compounded by water scarcity issues.
Human Impact: Food Security and Livelihoods
Climate-driven crop losses translate directly into hunger, poverty, and instability. According to a report, in 2025 alone, prolonged drought has left over 90 million people in eastern and southern Africa facing severe hunger. A U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service analysis indicates that Zimbabwe’s corn production dropped around 70% year-on-year in the 2024-25 marketing year, pushing millions into food insecurity.
In Nigeria, erratic rainfall and river drying have worsened the food crisis, leaving around 31 million people food-insecure, as detailed in reports, while Malawi and Zambia have both declared states of disaster, with around 28-30% of their populations food-insecure.
Leveraging Agritech to Mitigate Climate-Driven Losses
Climate change has already caused significant damage, but agritech provides practical levers to stabilise yields and recover value. The question is no longer what agritech can do but how its technical applications can be deployed at scale to offset losses across Africa’s diverse farming systems.
The real opportunity in precision farming lies in layering multiple datasets for adaptive management. Integrating remote sensing with ground sensors, for instance, enables micro-climate mapping that helps farmers distinguish soil-driven stress from heatwave impacts.
In maize systems across the Sudano-Sahel, where rainfall heterogeneity drives yield instability, this differentiation is crucial. Similarly, AI-driven pest forecasting models trained on historical outbreak and weather data can predict fall armyworm migration up to two weeks in advance, shifting responses from blanket pesticide spraying to targeted prevention.
Climate-smart agriculture adds another stabilising layer when genetics, soil carbon strategies, and digital advisory tools are combined. The impact of heat and drought-tolerant hybrids may multiply when paired with local weather advisories that guide optimal planting windows.
Agritech may not completely eliminate the climate penalty on yields, but when these innovations are scaled, integrated, and farmer-centred, they compress losses and create buffers against shocks. The challenge ahead is less about invention and more about aligning finance, infrastructure, and policy to carry these tools from pilot projects into widespread practice.
Conclusion
Africa’s agricultural future hinges on urgent, collective responses to climate change. Crop losses are no longer distant projections because they are here, undermining food security, destabilising economies, and threatening lives.
But the story need not end in catastrophe. With targeted adaptation, improved technologies, and bold policy reforms, Africa can buffer its food systems against climate shocks. Investments today will determine whether future generations inherit a continent defined by scarcity or one where resilience and innovation turn the tide.
