CLIMATE CHANGE AND CROP LOSS IN EAST AFRICA

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Climate change is rapidly undermining agriculture which forms the backbone of East African economies, employing over 70 percent of the population and contributing substantially to GDP and food security. Thus, threatening livelihoods, food supply, and regional stability.

The real picture of climate change and crop loss in East Africa is not just a story of shrinking harvests. It is an intricate interplay of environmental change, socio-economic vulnerability, and adaptation challenges. To understand this picture we must examine how climate change is manifesting in the region, how it is affecting crops, what the data say about losses, and what strategies can help stabilise food systems in East Africa.

The Changing Climate in East Africa

Agriculture in East Africa is overwhelmingly dependent on rainfall rather than large-scale irrigation. Key staple crops such as maize, sorghum, millet, beans, cassava, and teff are primarily grown for local consumption, while export crops like coffee, tea, and horticultural produce generate foreign exchange. 

Smallholder farmers constitute the majority of producers. Because their farms are rain fed, these farmers are especially vulnerable to variations in rainfall timing, amount, and temperature. Even a small deviation in rainfall schedule can mean the difference between a good or poor yield. Here are some common climate issues facing farmers in east Africa

1. Rising Temperatures

Average temperatures across East Africa have been on a steady increase over the past decades. Projections suggest the region may see a rise of 1.5 °C to 3 °C by mid-century. That increase, though seemingly moderate, can severely disrupt crop growth cycles, reduce soil moisture, and alter pest dynamics.

According to the IPCC, risks to crop yields are substantially lower at a 1.5 °C warming level than at 2 °C, yet even under 1.5 °C many areas will experience reduced maize cropping areas and declines in coffee and tea yields. 

2. Erratic Rainfall Patterns

Traditional rainy seasons, such as April to August, are becoming less predictable. Farmers now deal with delayed onset of rains, early cessation, or intense bursts that lead to flooding and soil erosion. This unpredictability undermines planting schedules and often damages crops.

3. Prolonged Droughts

Drought has been devastating various parts of East Africa. Parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, have faced repeated droughts in recent decades, the most notable being the famine in 2011. More recently, from 2020 to 2023, severe drought affected more than 50 million people across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, devastating livestock, reducing crop yields, and displacing communities.

4. Extreme Weather Events

Floods, cyclones, and landslides are also increasing in frequency and intensity. Coastal areas of Tanzania and Mozambique have been hit by cyclones. Parts of Kenya and Uganda suffer floods, while highland zones in Ethiopia experience landslides. These shocks compound existing agricultural stressors.

The Direct Impact on Crops

Reduced Yields of Staple Crops

• Maize: This staple is highly sensitive to heat above its optimal range. Studies show that each 1 °C rise above optimal growing temperature can reduce maize yields by about 10 %. In Kenya’s Rift Valley, unpredictable rainfall and increased temperature has already led to sharp declines in maize output.
  
• Sorghum and Millet: These crops are relatively more drought-tolerant, but higher temperatures and shortened growing seasons are still reducing their yields, especially in semi-arid zones.
  
• Beans: In Uganda and Rwanda, erratic rainfall and shorter rainy seasons have led to yield reductions in bean production, which is a key protein source.

Export Crop Vulnerability

• Coffee: Arabica coffee, widely grown in the highlands of Ethiopia and Uganda, is extremely sensitive to rising temperature. Without adaptation, Ethiopia stands to lose some of its suitable coffee-growing areas by mid-century.
  
• Tea: Kenya’s tea production is affected by both rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall, which degrade both quantity and quality of harvests.
  
• Horticultural crops: Export vegetables, fruits, and flowers depend on reliable water supply and climate predictability. Water stress and erratic rain raise production costs and undermine export competitiveness.

How Climate Change Is Reshaping Livelihoods in East Africa

Due to the effects of climate change, humanity is confronted with a multitude of significant challenges. These include:

Food Insecurity

Millions of households in East Africa now face chronic food insecurity. The FAO estimates that over 45 million people in the East African region are undernourished, with climate-driven crop failures as a major factor.

Economic Losses

Agriculture accounts for 25 to 40% of GDP in East African countries. Crop losses translate into lower farmer incomes, dwindling export revenues, and increased food import bills. Kenya, for instance, has had to import maize from countries like Mexico and Zambia to fill domestic shortages.

Livelihood Disruption

Smallholder farmers and pastoralists are losing their means of survival, pushing many to migrate to areas with better resources. This often leads to competition over scarce resources such as water and grazing lands, which can spark conflict.

Malnutrition and Health Challenges

Reduced yields translate into lower dietary diversity. In drought-impacted areas, families often survive on monotonous rations of maize or sorghum porridge, risking malnutrition—particularly among children.

Country Case Studies

Kenya

Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands which make up more than 80% of the country and host 38% of the population have seen sharp declines in maize and bean yields. These areas produce 12% of GDP, yet poverty rates in Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands remain above 80%. 

The 2019–2020 locust swarms devastated crops across the region. In areas like Chakama in Kilifi County, the locust invasion at the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020, linked to climate change and cyclonic patterns, destroyed crops and combined with over 18 months without rainfall to push families into extreme poverty. 

Uganda

Once considered the “food basket” of East Africa, Uganda is one of Africa’s largest banana producers, with about three quarters of Uganda’s farmers cultivating bananas, which account for up to around a third of the nation’s daily food intake. Every day Ugandans consume an average of 1.5 pounds of bananas each. However, Uganda now contends with irregular rains that hurt banana, bean, and coffee yields. Uganda historically has two rainy seasons, from March through May and from October through December, but in recent years the rain pattern has completely changed, with rain coming at unexpected times and drought arriving when rain should be falling. 

Coffee and banana production are expected to be affected by climate change, with rainfall distribution becoming more erratic and average temperature expected to increase by 2°C in the next few decades. Farmers in mountainous areas of western Uganda, the country’s food basket, are experiencing floods that wash away crops whenever the area receives above-average rains, while Ugandan coffee farmers have lost hundreds of trees to floods and are also dealing with the emergence of new pests and diseases like white flies, coffee stem borers, and coffee leaf rust that were previously non-existent in colder districts. 

Tanzania

In southern Tanzania, maize and rice production has been disrupted by erratic rainfall and climate variability. Production of maize, the main staple crop nationally and a major export commodity, is projected to decrease by 2050. 

Rice farming also plays a vital role in sustaining livelihoods and ensuring food security, with the Kilombero floodplain serving as Tanzania’s major rice basket. However, rice farmers in the Kilombero and Lower-Rufiji floodplains face increasing challenges from flood events. Meanwhile, coastal flooding threatens cassava and horticulture, affecting both domestic food supply and exports. 

Adaptation and Resilience: What Is Being Done?

1. Climate-Smart Agriculture

The East African Community (EAC) promotes Climate-Smart Agriculture, which aims to increase productivity sustainably, enhance resilience, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Many national and regional programs now incorporate Climate-Smart Agriculture techniques such as drought-tolerant crop varieties, agroforestry, intercropping, and conservation tillage.

2. Irrigation and Water Management

Expanding irrigation infrastructure is a priority for reducing reliance on rainfall. Small-scale irrigation schemes in Ethiopia and water harvesting projects in Kenya are examples of efforts to buffer agriculture from rainfall variability.

3. Early Warning Systems

Climate information systems as well as remote sensing are increasingly deployed to help farmers anticipate weather changes. In Uganda and Kenya, mobile platforms deliver localised weather forecasts and guidance to farmers, helping them adjust planting schedules and manage risks.

4. Policy and Regional Collaboration

The Eastern African Community (EAC) has adopted a Climate Change Policy Framework to guide collective measures across member states. The EAC policy aims to build resilience, reduce vulnerability, and harmonise adaptation across borders.

The Road Ahead

The real picture of climate change and crop loss in East Africa is sobering, but not one of inevitable decline. The resilience of farmers, innovation in agronomy, better governance, and international cooperation offer a pathway forward.

Scaling up climate-smart practices, strengthening institutions, ensuring inclusive policies, and mobilising finance are essential. But urgency is paramount. Without prompt action, crop losses will deepen poverty, worsen food insecurity, and destabilise the region. 

Remember, climate change is not a distant threat, it is already rewriting East Africa’s agricultural future.